Space: the shrinking frontier

Given its vast expanse, space is often viewed as an infinite resource. Unfortunately, this is not the case as the global space industry launches more and more satellites as part of an unparalleled investment boom. Without concerted action, the value of this precious asset could be jeopardised for future generations.

Over the past 60 years, about 11,000 satellites have been launched, of which 7,000 remain in space. By the end of this decade, that number could be in the hundreds of thousands as private companies including Elon Musk’s Starlink and Amazon vie with China and other nation states to build mega-constellations in Low Earth Orbit (LEO).

Many of these new constellations will contain tens of thousands of new satellites – but each one has an expected life of just five to 10 years. The resulting debris will create hazards not just in a particular orbit, but for anything passing through that orbit. There are broader environmental dangers, including damage to the high-atmosphere and light pollution that could hinder future scientific discovery.

The rules governing activity in space were written decades ago and are no longer fit for purpose. They are founded on voluntary consent and lack meaningful penalties to deter rule breakers. It’s little wonder that space regulation is routinely referred to as a "wild west" and that the European Space Agency recently warned that "our current behaviour in space is unsustainable”.

As the chief executive of one of the world’s leading satellite companies, I know that the smart use of space can enhance life on earth. Satellite connectivity is essential to connecting the roughly three billion people who have yet to use the internet. It is critical for the aviation and maritime industries, for government agencies and to unlock the productivity benefits of the Internet of Things.

Much of this is already possible using low-risk geostationary satellite constellations, positioned in high orbit, with more to come helped by the advent of LEO satellites. But we should all be concerned about the scale, sustainability and safety issues created by the number of LEO mega-constellations now in development. The potential risks may outweigh the benefits.

To avoid catastrophe, space industry leaders, regulators and governments should work towards a solution based on five principles. First, we need a level playing field for operators globally. Second, a new regulatory framework must allow for robust enforcement, including penalties for companies that flout the rules. Third, we must increase investment in data and analytical tools to ensure a better understanding of the underlying science. Fourth, we need to detach sustainability from national security concerns; countries should be able to share information about the location of their satellites without revealing their purpose. Finally, regulations must be put in place rapidly and then improved over time as new technologies emerge at lightning speed.

We need to address these challenges sooner rather than later. At the national level, regulators must take immediate action to ensure vibrant competition beyond a handful of LEO mega-constellations. Nations need to rethink how they grant market access and exclude irresponsible actors.

At the multilateral level, countries with the largest footprint in space must come together to agree some basic standards, such as limiting the number of satellites in a given orbital shell. The coalition of the willing would initially include the UK, Europe, US, Japan, Brazil, Australia and other like-minded countries.

At the global level, which is the most critical for a long-term sustainable solution, the ITU, the United Nations agency for information and communications, should be given the mandate and resources to address issues of space sustainability. The ITU is not perfect, but it has proven its worth ensuring the equitable and rational use of spectrum.

Let's not waste the opportunity to get things right. We are already paying the price for unregulated mismanagement of the planet's resources. We cannot afford to make the same mistakes in space.

Rajeev was appointed as Inmarsat’s Chief Executive Officer in March 2021. He joined Inmarsat from Nokia, where he was most recently President and Chief Executive Officer. From 2009 to 2014 Rajeev was Chief Executive Officer of Nokia Solutions and Networks. During his tenure as CEO, he transformed Nokia into a top two telecommunications infrastructure company, led the consolidation of the sector from ten to three major players, positioned Nokia as a leader in a world connected by 5G and shaped by increasing digitalisation and automation. 

Rajeev has lived and worked in the Middle East, Asia, Africa and Europe. In March 2021, he was reappointed as a Commissioner of the United Nations Broadband Commission. Rajeev was a member of the Chinese Premier’s Global CEO Council from 2014 to 2020, a recipient of China’s Marco Polo award; the highest honour awarded to an international business person from the Chinese government. Rajeev is an engineering graduate in Electronics and Communications and has been awarded an Honorary Doctorate by Manipal University.